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The Market Roundup: Week of July 10

  • This week’s market snapshot
  • What happens now with Mt. Gox’s 138K BTC?
  • Celsius refused to show financials for $6B bailout
  • Uniswap users lose $8M in phishing attack
  • Shanghai allocates $1.5B to metaverse fund

Over the last few weeks ETH has had a massive rally, up over 43% since July 1 when our ETH fund launched, and up over 50% from the market bottom in mid June. The discount on staked ETH ( stETH ) has closed from 6% down to 2%.

It’s hard to say what the driving force is here. There are likely a combination of factors at play: 

  1. May/June had a series of absolutely catastrophic events in crypto. The collapse of Terra, 3AC and Celsius. Now that these have unwound there is simply less selling pressure.
  2. The stETH discount was an obvious result of reduced demand for $ETH staking Lido Finance – we described it as free ETH at the time and still feel that way.
  3. The ethereum merge is essentially locked-in for September/October, which is a strong upside catalyst.
  4. Broader macro sentiment is that the Fed is going to have to reverse course and start cutting rates in the near term, which is causing all risk assets to re-price and rally.

Crypto is a bifurcated universe. There is a huge chunk of it that is pure gambling (essentially all of 2010-2019) and there is a small sliver of real value creation in the
application layer being built on smart contract platforms. Long term our bet is always
on real value creation…

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